Player breakdown
Kyler Murray
Oklahoma · 2019 Draft Class
5-10207 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~29
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1Manning x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 2167NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
92%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ARI | 16 | 16 | 349 | 542 | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 544 | 4 | 24 |
| 2020 | ARI | 16 | 16 | 375 | 558 | 3,971 | 26 | 12 | 819 | 11 | 37 |
| 2021 | ARI | 14 | 14 | 333 | 481 | 3,787 | 24 | 10 | 423 | 5 | 29 |
| 2022 | ARI | 11 | 11 | 259 | 390 | 2,368 | 14 | 7 | 418 | 3 | 17 |
| 2023 | ARI | 8 | 8 | 176 | 268 | 1,799 | 10 | 5 | 244 | 3 | 13 |
| 2024 | ARI | 17 | 17 | 372 | 541 | 3,851 | 21 | 11 | 572 | 5 | 26 |
| 2025 | ARI | 5 | 5 | 110 | 161 | 962 | 6 | 3 | 173 | 1 | 7 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Texas A&M | SEC | 0 | 72 | 121 | 686 | 5 | 7 | 335 | 1 | 6 |
| 2017 | Oklahoma | SEC | 3 | 18 | 21 | 359 | 3 | 0 | 142 | 0 | 3 |
| 2018 | Oklahoma | SEC | 13 | 241 | 340 | 4,053 | 40 | 7 | 892 | 11 | 51 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
82%
ML model output
Context Prob
82%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1683 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
4,412 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.270
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.57 — average athletic ceiling-0.562
Improvement accelerating (+4.9) — getting better faster each year-0.390
275.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.338