Player breakdown
Lamar Jackson
Louisville · 2018 Draft Class
6-2216 lbs1st round, 32nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~29
EliteHeisman x1All-American x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 2144NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
92%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | BAL | 16 | 7 | 99 | 170 | 1,201 | 6 | 3 | 695 | 5 | 11 |
| 2019 | BAL | 15 | 15 | 265 | 401 | 3,127 | 36 | 6 | 1,206 | 7 | 43 |
| 2020 | BAL | 15 | 15 | 242 | 376 | 2,757 | 26 | 9 | 1,005 | 7 | 33 |
| 2021 | BAL | 12 | 12 | 246 | 382 | 2,882 | 16 | 13 | 767 | 2 | 18 |
| 2022 | BAL | 12 | 12 | 203 | 326 | 2,242 | 17 | 7 | 764 | 3 | 20 |
| 2023 | BAL | 16 | 16 | 307 | 457 | 3,678 | 24 | 7 | 821 | 5 | 29 |
| 2024 | BAL | 17 | 17 | 316 | 474 | 4,172 | 41 | 4 | 915 | 4 | 45 |
| 2025 | BAL | 13 | 13 | 192 | 302 | 2,549 | 21 | 7 | 349 | 2 | 23 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | Louisville | ACC | 0 | 123 | 221 | 1,613 | 10 | 8 | 734 | 9 | 19 |
| 2016 | Louisville | ACC | 12 | 220 | 382 | 3,390 | 30 | 9 | 1,538 | 21 | 51 |
| 2017 | Louisville | ACC | 12 | 241 | 399 | 3,489 | 25 | 6 | 1,443 | 17 | 42 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
66%
ML model output
Context Prob
66%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+938 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.294
8,492 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.557
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.373
353.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351