Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Luke Falk
Luke Falk

Player breakdown

Luke Falk

Washington St. · 2018 Draft Class

6-4215 lbs6th round, 199th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~31
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

20%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2019NYJ32477341603000
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2014Washington StatePac-1251562431,8591370013
2015Washington StatePac-1204185914,2663680036
2016Washington StatePac-12114135824,20437100037
2017Washington StatePac-12103575343,59330130030

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

20%

ML model output

Context Prob

20%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

13,922 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.253
Best-season yards rank: top 17% in class — strong+0.200

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.60 — strong athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+1.3) — getting better faster each year-0.383
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.364

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)