Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Luke McCown
Luke McCown

Player breakdown

Luke McCown

Louisiana Tech · 2004 Draft Class

6-4208 lbs4th round, 106th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~45
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

17%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2004CLE544898608472504
2007TAM53941391,0095311705
2008TAM20010001500
2009JAX3013200000
2010JAX10111912000400
2011JAX423056296042300
2012ATL2000000-300
2013NOR16001000-400
2015NOR81323933501000
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003Louisiana TechConference USA367113790626006

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

17%

ML model output

Context Prob

17%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.344
4.21s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
790 career receiving yards — modest volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.554
263.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.318
Height-adjusted speed: 4.46s — good speed for frame-0.314

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)