Player breakdown
Mac Jones
Alabama · 2021 Draft Class
6-2217 lbs1st round, 15th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~28
EliteDavey O'Brien x1Manning x1Unitas x1All-American x1All-Conference x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 5Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
81%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | NWE | 17 | 17 | 352 | 521 | 3,801 | 22 | 13 | 129 | 0 | 22 |
| 2022 | NWE | 14 | 14 | 288 | 442 | 2,997 | 14 | 11 | 102 | 1 | 15 |
| 2023 | NWE | 11 | 11 | 224 | 345 | 2,120 | 10 | 12 | 96 | 0 | 10 |
| 2024 | JAX | 10 | 7 | 171 | 262 | 1,672 | 8 | 8 | 92 | 1 | 9 |
| 2025 | SFO | 11 | 8 | 201 | 289 | 2,151 | 13 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 13 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Alabama | SEC | 1 | 5 | 13 | 123 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2019 | Alabama | SEC | 5 | 81 | 116 | 1,176 | 11 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 12 |
| 2020 | Alabama | SEC | 10 | 311 | 402 | 4,500 | 41 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 42 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
74%
ML model output
Context Prob
74%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.428
Strong ascending production slope (+2188 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
5,799 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+35.6) — getting better faster each year-0.390
362.4 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.338
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.315