Player breakdown
Marcus Mariota
Oregon · 2015 Draft Class
6-4222 lbs1st round, 2nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~32
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1Manning x1Unitas x1All-American x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 5Heisman votes: 2534NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
92%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | TEN | 12 | 12 | 230 | 370 | 2,818 | 19 | 10 | 252 | 2 | 21 |
| 2016 | TEN | 15 | 15 | 276 | 451 | 3,426 | 26 | 9 | 349 | 2 | 28 |
| 2017 | TEN | 15 | 15 | 281 | 453 | 3,232 | 13 | 15 | 312 | 5 | 18 |
| 2018 | TEN | 14 | 13 | 228 | 331 | 2,528 | 11 | 8 | 357 | 2 | 13 |
| 2019 | TEN | 7 | 6 | 95 | 160 | 1,203 | 7 | 2 | 129 | 0 | 7 |
| 2020 | LVR | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 88 | 1 | 2 |
| 2021 | LVR | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 1 | 1 |
| 2022 | ATL | 13 | 13 | 184 | 300 | 2,219 | 15 | 9 | 438 | 4 | 19 |
| 2023 | PHI | 3 | 0 | 15 | 23 | 164 | 1 | 1 | 52 | 0 | 1 |
| 2024 | WAS | 3 | 0 | 34 | 44 | 364 | 4 | 0 | 92 | 1 | 5 |
| 2025 | WAS | 11 | 8 | 139 | 227 | 1,695 | 10 | 7 | 297 | 1 | 11 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Oregon | Big Ten | 12 | 230 | 336 | 2,677 | 32 | 6 | 752 | 5 | 37 |
| 2013 | Oregon | Big Ten | 12 | 227 | 360 | 3,412 | 30 | 4 | 582 | 9 | 39 |
| 2014 | Oregon | Big Ten | 13 | 254 | 372 | 3,783 | 38 | 2 | 669 | 14 | 52 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
64%
ML model output
Context Prob
64%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.96 — elite athletic ceiling+0.359
Improvement accelerating (+0.4) — getting better faster each year+0.345
4.11s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
Top Negative Factors
266.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319
Height-adjusted speed: 4.28s — elite speed for frame-0.289