Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Mark Gronowski
Mark Gronowski

Player breakdown

Mark Gronowski

Iowa · 2026 Draft Class

Undrafted / UpcomingAge: ~19
Medium
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

49%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2025IowaBig Ten131602551,687366231215

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

49%

ML model output

Context Prob

49%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1687 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.349
1,687 career receiving yards — modest volume+0.281
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.269

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.554
Improvement accelerating (+1687.0) — getting better faster each year-0.390
129.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.325

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)