Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Mark Sanchez
Mark Sanchez

Player breakdown

Mark Sanchez

USC · 2009 Draft Class

1st round, 5th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~39
High25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

64%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2009NYJ15151963642,4441220106315
2010NYJ16162785073,2911713105320
2011NYJ16163085433,4742618103632
2012NYJ15152464532,883131828013
2014PHI981983092,418141187115
2015PHI425991616442204
2016DAL2010189302-200
2018WAS21193513803800
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006USCBig Ten1376301000
2007USCBig Ten369114695752207
2008USCBig Ten122133312,79430100030

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

64%

ML model output

Context Prob

64%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1365 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
3,552 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.281
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.554
Improvement accelerating (+43.4) — getting better faster each year-0.397
222.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.341

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)