Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Mason Rudolph
Mason Rudolph

Player breakdown

Mason Rudolph

Oklahoma St. · 2018 Draft Class

6-5235 lbs3rd round, 76th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~31
HighUnitas x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

70%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2019PIT1081762831,76513942013
2020PIT51254332421-602
2021PIT213558277115301
2023PIT43557471930803
2024TEN851462281,53099106110
2025PIT51385231022602
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2014Oklahoma StateBig 122326055443004
2015Oklahoma StateBig 1202463933,5912190021
2016Oklahoma StateBig 12112624163,77725454631
2017Oklahoma StateBig 12112974574,553359291045

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

47%

ML model output

Context Prob

47%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.90 — elite athletic ceiling+0.369
Strong ascending production slope (+1333 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
12,475 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+7.2) — getting better faster each year-0.390
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.353
519.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)