Player breakdown
Matt Barkley
USC · 2013 Draft Class
4th round, 98th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~35
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
31%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | PHI | 3 | 0 | 30 | 49 | 300 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2014 | PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2016 | CHI | 7 | 6 | 129 | 216 | 1,611 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 2018 | BUF | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 | 232 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2019 | BUF | 2 | 0 | 27 | 51 | 359 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | BUF | 5 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 197 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 | 1 |
| 2023 | JAX | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | USC | Big Ten | 10 | 211 | 352 | 2,735 | 15 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2010 | USC | Big Ten | 10 | 236 | 377 | 2,791 | 26 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| 2011 | USC | Big Ten | 12 | 308 | 446 | 3,528 | 39 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 41 |
| 2012 | USC | Big Ten | 10 | 246 | 387 | 3,273 | 36 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
31%
ML model output
Context Prob
31%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Improvement accelerating (+0.3) — getting better faster each year+0.351
12,327 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.268
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.255
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.566
293.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.348
4 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319