Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Matt Barkley
Matt Barkley

Player breakdown

Matt Barkley

USC · 2013 Draft Class

4th round, 98th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~35
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

31%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2013PHI30304930004-200
2014PHI1001000000
2016CHI761292161,611814208
2018BUF11152523220-202
2019BUF20275135903-400
2020BUF50112119711-601
2023JAX1000000-300
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2009USCBig Ten102113522,73515140015
2010USCBig Ten102363772,79126120026
2011USCBig Ten123084463,52839714241
2012USCBig Ten102463873,27336150036

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

31%

ML model output

Context Prob

31%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.3) — getting better faster each year+0.351
12,327 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.268
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.255

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.566
293.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.348
4 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)