Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Matt Cassel
Matt Cassel

Player breakdown

Matt Cassel

USC · 2005 Draft Class

7th round, 230th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~44
Medium25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

53%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2005NWE201324183211202
2006NWE60583200400
2007NWE604738011211
2008NWE16153275163,6932111270223
2009KAN15152714932,9241616189016
2010KAN15152624503,116277125027
2011KAN991602691,71310999010
2012KAN981612771,79661214517
2013MIN961532541,80711957112
2014MIN334171425341803
2015DAL871192041,276577805
2016TEN41305128422302
2017TEN21254216212001
2018DET2071759011300
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003USCBig Ten27156800000
2004USCBig Ten0101497011100

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

53%

ML model output

Context Prob

53%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.4) — getting better faster each year+0.344
165 career receiving yards — modest volume+0.281
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.264

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.546
82.5 career ypg — strong primary-target college production-0.325
Best-season yards rank: top 92% in class — average-0.287

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)