Player breakdown
Matt Corral
Mississippi · 2022 Draft Class
6-2212 lbs3rd round, 94th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~27
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
24%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Ole Miss | SEC | 2 | 16 | 22 | 239 | 2 | 1 | 83 | 2 | 4 |
| 2019 | Ole Miss | SEC | 5 | 105 | 178 | 1,362 | 6 | 3 | 135 | 1 | 7 |
| 2020 | Ole Miss | SEC | 9 | 231 | 326 | 3,337 | 29 | 14 | 506 | 4 | 33 |
| 2021 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 260 | 380 | 3,339 | 20 | 4 | 597 | 11 | 31 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
24%
ML model output
Context Prob
24%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1033 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.314
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.275
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.263
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+13.0) — getting better faster each year-0.397
295.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.343