Player breakdown
Matt Leinart
USC · 2006 Draft Class
6-5223 lbs1st round, 10th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
EliteHeisman x1Manning x1Unitas x1All-American x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 1325NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
92%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | ARI | 12 | 11 | 214 | 377 | 2,547 | 11 | 12 | 49 | 2 | 13 |
| 2007 | ARI | 5 | 5 | 60 | 112 | 647 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 | 2 |
| 2008 | ARI | 4 | 0 | 15 | 29 | 264 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| 2009 | ARI | 8 | 1 | 51 | 77 | 435 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 | 0 |
| 2011 | HOU | 2 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 57 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2012 | OAK | 2 | 0 | 16 | 33 | 115 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | USC | Big Ten | 13 | 261 | 397 | 3,596 | 39 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 39 |
| 2004 | USC | Big Ten | 11 | 251 | 377 | 2,990 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| 2005 | USC | Big Ten | 12 | 254 | 391 | 3,450 | 27 | 7 | 34 | 6 | 33 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
30%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.351
10,036 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Best-season yards rank: top 8% in class — class-best peak output+0.200
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.566
278.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319