Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Matt Leinart
Matt Leinart

Player breakdown

Matt Leinart

USC · 2006 Draft Class

6-5223 lbs1st round, 10th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
EliteHeisman x1Manning x1Unitas x1All-American x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 1325NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

92%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006ARI12112143772,547111249213
2007ARI5560112647244202
2008ARI40152926411501
2009ARI81517743503-600
2011HOU2110135710-101
2012OAK20163311501000
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003USCBig Ten132613973,59639139039
2004USCBig Ten112513772,9902860028
2005USCBig Ten122543913,45027734633

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

30%

ML model output

Context Prob

30%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.351
10,036 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Best-season yards rank: top 8% in class — class-best peak output+0.200

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.566
278.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)