Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Matt Mauck
Matt Mauck

Player breakdown

Matt Mauck

LSU · 2004 Draft Class

6-2228 lbs7th round, 225th overallAge at Draft: 25Age: ~47
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

53%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2005TEN211527136013900
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003LSUSEC142413572,791291252130

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

53%

ML model output

Context Prob

53%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.90 — elite athletic ceiling+0.367
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.351
2,791 career receiving yards — strong volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

199.4 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.341
Height-adjusted speed: 4.66s — below average speed for frame-0.315
Best-season yards rank: top 44% in class — average-0.300

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)