Matt Ryan

Boston Col. · 2008 Draft Class

6-5228 lbs1st round, 3rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~41

HighManning x1Unitas x125+ Total TD

Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --

Model confidence

Success Probability

72%

Year	Team	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Total TD
2008	ATL	16	16	265	434	3,440	16	11	104	1	17
2009	ATL	14	14	263	451	2,916	22	14	49	1	23
2010	ATL	16	16	357	571	3,705	28	9	122	0	28
2011	ATL	16	16	347	566	4,177	29	12	84	2	31
2012	ATL	16	16	422	615	4,719	32	14	141	1	33
2013	ATL	16	16	439	651	4,515	26	17	55	0	26
2014	ATL	16	16	415	628	4,694	28	14	145	0	28
2015	ATL	16	16	407	614	4,591	21	16	63	0	21
2016	ATL	16	16	373	534	4,944	38	7	117	0	38
2017	ATL	16	16	342	529	4,095	20	12	143	0	20
2018	ATL	16	16	422	608	4,924	35	7	125	3	38
2019	ATL	15	15	408	616	4,466	26	14	147	1	27
2020	ATL	16	16	407	626	4,581	26	11	92	2	28
2021	ATL	17	17	375	560	3,968	20	12	82	1	21
2022	IND	12	12	309	461	3,057	14	13	70	1	15

Season	Team	Conf	G	Cmp	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Total TD
2004	Boston College	ACC	2	34	69	337	2	3	0	0	2
2005	Boston College	ACC	5	102	159	1,258	5	4	72	5	10
2006	Boston College	ACC	8	242	396	2,697	14	8	0	0	14
2007	Boston College	ACC	13	366	607	4,258	28	18	26	2	30

Model readout

XGBoost Prob

56%

ML model output

Context Prob

56%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.458

Strong ascending production slope (+1307 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343

4.51s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262

Improvement accelerating (+11.6) — getting better faster each year-0.383

4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.347

305.4 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.333