Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Matt Schaub
Matt Schaub

Player breakdown

Matt Schaub

Virginia · 2004 Draft Class

6-6243 lbs3rd round, 90th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~45
Medium25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

54%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2004ATL613370330142601
2005ATL1613364495407604
2006ATL1601827208122101
2007HOU11111922892,241995209
2008HOU11112513803,043151068217
2009HOU16163965834,770291557029
2010HOU16163655744,370241228024
2011HOU10101782922,4791569217
2012HOU16163505444,0082212-9022
2013HOU1082193582,310101424010
2014OAK1105105702000
2015BAL225280540341003
2016ATL40131600-200
2018ATL30572000000
2019ATL61506758031-303
2020ATL1000000-400
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003VirginiaACC112783852,84618130119

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

54%

ML model output

Context Prob

54%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.90 — elite athletic ceiling+0.371
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.344
4.62s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277

Top Negative Factors

258.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.326
Height-adjusted speed: 4.65s — below average speed for frame-0.309
Composite college score: 7 — average multi-metric profile-0.261

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)