Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford

Player breakdown

Matthew Stafford

Georgia · 2009 Draft Class

6-2225 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~38
Medium25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

44%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2009DET10102013772,2671320108215
2010DET335796535611117
2011DET16164216635,038411678041
2012DET16164357274,9672017126424
2013DET16163716344,650291969231
2014DET16163636024,257221293224
2015DET16163985924,2623213159133
2016DET16163885944,3272410207226
2017DET16163715654,446291098029
2018DET16163675553,777211171021
2019DET881872912,49919566019
2020DET16163395284,0842610112026
2021LAR17174046014,886411743041
2022LAR992063032,0871089111
2023LAR15153265213,965241165024
2024LAR16163405173,76220841020
2025LAR17173885974,7074681046
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006GeorgiaSEC71262351,62061218839
2007GeorgiaSEC111803252,3481890018
2008GeorgiaSEC112153523,20922931123

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

44%

ML model output

Context Prob

44%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.421
4.47s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
7,177 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

247.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.335
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319
Height-adjusted speed: 4.68s — below average speed for frame-0.295

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)