Player breakdown
Michael Penix
Washington · 2024 Draft Class
6-2216 lbs1st round, 8th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~26
EliteMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
82%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ATL | 5 | 3 | 61 | 105 | 775 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 4 |
| 2025 | ATL | 9 | 9 | 166 | 276 | 1,982 | 9 | 3 | 70 | 1 | 10 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Indiana | Big Ten | 1 | 21 | 34 | 219 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 1 |
| 2019 | Indiana | Big Ten | 6 | 110 | 160 | 1,394 | 10 | 4 | 119 | 2 | 12 |
| 2020 | Indiana | Big Ten | 5 | 124 | 220 | 1,645 | 14 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 16 |
| 2021 | Indiana | Big Ten | 3 | 87 | 162 | 939 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2022 | Washington | Big Ten | 0 | 330 | 500 | 4,354 | 29 | 7 | 86 | 4 | 33 |
| 2023 | Washington | Big Ten | 15 | 307 | 466 | 4,218 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
48%
ML model output
Context Prob
48%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
8,572 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.249
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+18.9) — getting better faster each year-0.390
571.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345