Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Mike Kafka
Mike Kafka

Player breakdown

Mike Kafka

Northwestern · 2010 Draft Class

6-3225 lbs4th round, 122nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~39
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

7%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011PHI40111610702000
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006NorthwesternBig Ten355964941526323
2007NorthwesternBig Ten0231100800
2008NorthwesternBig Ten232463302332113
2009NorthwesternBig Ten93194923,4301612299824

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

7%

ML model output

Context Prob

7%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+978 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.314
4.37s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269
4,265 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.86 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
Improvement accelerating (+5.9) — getting better faster each year-0.390
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.334

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)