Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Mitchell Trubisky
Mitchell Trubisky

Player breakdown

Mitchell Trubisky

North Carolina · 2017 Draft Class

6-2222 lbs1st round, 2nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
High25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

68%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017CHI12121963302,1937724829
2018CHI14142894343,2232412421327
2019CHI15153265163,1381710193219
2020CHI1091992972,055168195117
2021BUF606843012411
2022PIT751171801,252453826
2023PIT5267107632455426
2024BUF90192617920102
2025BUF40253531340604
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2014North CarolinaACC53569394443004
2015North CarolinaACC040475556010139
2016North CarolinaACC112814083,468284270533

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

68%

ML model output

Context Prob

68%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.91 — elite athletic ceiling+0.370
Strong ascending production slope (+1537 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
4,417 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+7.8) — getting better faster each year-0.397
276.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.343
Height-adjusted speed: 4.54s — below average speed for frame-0.320

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)