Player breakdown
Nate Davis
Ball St. · 2009 Draft Class
6-1226 lbs5th round, 171st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~39
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
26%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Ball State | Mid-American | 9 | 150 | 244 | 1,975 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| 2007 | Ball State | Mid-American | 12 | 245 | 430 | 3,376 | 27 | 6 | 199 | 5 | 32 |
| 2008 | Ball State | Mid-American | 13 | 249 | 372 | 3,446 | 26 | 7 | 277 | 4 | 30 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
26%
ML model output
Context Prob
26%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
8,797 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Improvement accelerating (+0.7) — getting better faster each year+0.235
124 yards per TD — big-play production pattern+0.203
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.85 — elite athletic ceiling-0.566
258.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319