Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Nate Sudfeld
Nate Sudfeld

Player breakdown

Nate Sudfeld

Indiana · 2016 Draft Class

6-6234 lbs6th round, 187th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~32
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

4%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017PHI101923134002200
2018PHI20122210-201
2020PHI1051232011200
2022DET2000000-400
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2012IndianaBig Ten4518263271707
2013IndianaBig Ten91943222,5232190021
2014IndianaBig Ten41011671,151639828
2015IndianaBig Ten02193613,18424541529

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

4%

ML model output

Context Prob

4%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

7,490 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Composite college score: 11 — above avg multi-metric profile+0.168
3-cone drill not recorded at combine+0.131

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.88 — elite athletic ceiling-0.443
Improvement accelerating (+4.0) — getting better faster each year-0.397
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.344

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)