Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Nathan Peterman
Nathan Peterman

Player breakdown

Nathan Peterman

Pittsburgh · 2017 Draft Class

6-2226 lbs5th round, 171st overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

22%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017BUF422449252252302
2018BUF424481296175012
2020LVR10352500900
2021LVR1000000200
2022CHI31142513911701
2023CHI2000000-400
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2013TennesseeSEC010234502000
2014TennesseeSEC1102049001311
2015PittsburghACC01802932,150195208120
2016PittsburghACC121722882,602266291228

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

22%

ML model output

Context Prob

22%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.407
4.31s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
4,752 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+56.8) — getting better faster each year-0.397
396.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.334
Height-adjusted speed: 4.69s — below average speed for frame-0.301

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)