Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Nick Foles
Nick Foles

Player breakdown

Nick Foles

Arizona · 2012 Draft Class

6-5243 lbs3rd round, 88th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
Low25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

34%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2012PHI761612651,699654217
2013PHI13102033172,891272221330
2014PHI881863112,163131068013
2015STL11111903372,0527102018
2016KAN31365541030-403
2017PHI735710153752305
2018PHI551411951,413741707
2019JAX4477117736322303
2020CHI972023121,8521081111
2021CHI11243525010801
2022IND32254222404800
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2007Michigan StateBig Ten0585700000
2009ArizonaBig 12102604092,4861990019
2010ArizonaBig 1292543762,9111970019
2011ArizonaBig 12123875604,33428140028

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

34%

ML model output

Context Prob

34%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1425 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
9,731 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Best-season yards rank: top 0% in class — class-best peak output+0.205

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.88 — elite athletic ceiling-0.439
Improvement accelerating (+75.0) — getting better faster each year-0.383
313.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.341

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)