Player breakdown
Patrick Mahomes
Texas Tech · 2017 Draft Class
6-2225 lbs1st round, 10th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~30
Elite25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
89%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | KAN | 1 | 1 | 22 | 35 | 284 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | KAN | 16 | 16 | 383 | 580 | 5,097 | 50 | 12 | 272 | 2 | 52 |
| 2019 | KAN | 14 | 14 | 319 | 484 | 4,031 | 26 | 5 | 218 | 2 | 28 |
| 2020 | KAN | 15 | 15 | 390 | 588 | 4,740 | 38 | 6 | 308 | 2 | 40 |
| 2021 | KAN | 17 | 17 | 436 | 658 | 4,839 | 37 | 13 | 381 | 2 | 39 |
| 2022 | KAN | 17 | 17 | 435 | 648 | 5,250 | 41 | 12 | 358 | 4 | 45 |
| 2023 | KAN | 16 | 16 | 401 | 597 | 4,183 | 27 | 14 | 389 | 0 | 27 |
| 2024 | KAN | 16 | 16 | 392 | 581 | 3,928 | 26 | 11 | 307 | 2 | 28 |
| 2025 | KAN | 14 | 14 | 315 | 502 | 3,587 | 22 | 11 | 422 | 5 | 27 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 5 | 105 | 185 | 1,547 | 16 | 4 | 104 | 0 | 16 |
| 2015 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 0 | 336 | 517 | 4,283 | 32 | 14 | 484 | 10 | 42 |
| 2016 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 12 | 388 | 591 | 5,052 | 41 | 10 | 285 | 12 | 53 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
89%
ML model output
Context Prob
89%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.481
Strong ascending production slope (+1752 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
4.08s short shuttle — elite lateral quickness+0.277
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+2.3) — getting better faster each year-0.390
640.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Height-adjusted speed: 4.67s — below average speed for frame-0.307