Player breakdown
Paxton Lynch
Memphis · 2016 Draft Class
6-7244 lbs1st round, 26th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~32
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
53%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | DEN | 3 | 2 | 49 | 83 | 497 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 2 |
| 2017 | DEN | 2 | 2 | 30 | 45 | 295 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 2 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Memphis | American Athletic | 8 | 203 | 349 | 2,056 | 9 | 10 | 127 | 2 | 11 |
| 2014 | Memphis | American Athletic | 11 | 235 | 367 | 2,725 | 18 | 6 | 283 | 10 | 28 |
| 2015 | Memphis | American Athletic | 0 | 280 | 406 | 3,670 | 28 | 3 | 240 | 2 | 30 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
53%
ML model output
Context Prob
53%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.94 — elite athletic ceiling+0.369
4.26s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
8,451 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Top Negative Factors
444.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.346
Height-adjusted speed: 4.43s — good speed for frame-0.290
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.282