Philip Rivers

North Carolina St. · 2004 Draft Class

6-5229 lbs1st round, 4th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~44

High25+ Total TD

Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --

Model confidence

Success Probability

59%

Year	Team	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Total TD
2004	SDG	2	0	5	8	33	1	0	-5	0	1
2005	SDG	2	0	12	22	115	0	1	-1	0	0
2006	SDG	16	16	284	460	3,388	22	9	49	0	22
2007	SDG	16	16	277	460	3,152	21	15	33	1	22
2008	SDG	16	16	312	478	4,009	34	11	84	0	34
2009	SDG	16	16	317	486	4,254	28	9	50	1	29
2010	SDG	16	16	357	541	4,710	30	13	52	0	30
2011	SDG	16	16	366	582	4,624	27	20	36	1	28
2012	SDG	16	16	338	527	3,606	26	15	40	0	26
2013	SDG	16	16	378	544	4,478	32	11	72	0	32
2014	SDG	16	16	379	570	4,286	31	18	102	0	31
2015	SDG	16	16	437	661	4,792	29	13	28	0	29
2016	SDG	16	16	349	578	4,386	33	21	35	0	33
2017	LAC	16	16	360	575	4,515	28	10	-2	0	28
2018	LAC	16	16	347	508	4,308	32	12	7	0	32
2019	LAC	16	16	390	591	4,615	23	20	29	0	23
2020	IND	16	16	369	543	4,169	24	11	-8	0	24
2025	IND	3	3	58	92	544	4	3	-1	0	4

Season	Team	Conf	G	Cmp	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Total TD
2003	NC State	ACC	12	344	459	4,280	34	0	213	3	37

Model readout

XGBoost Prob

59%

ML model output

Context Prob

59%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.345

4,280 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273

1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262

Physical upside: 0.85 — elite athletic ceiling-0.568

356.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345

Height-adjusted speed: 4.75s — below average speed for frame-0.307