Player breakdown
Riley Leonard
Notre Dame · 2025 Draft Class
6-4216 lbs6th round, 189th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~23
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $2.5M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
25%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | IND | 5 | 1 | 39 | 67 | 415 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 2 | 4 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Duke | ACC | 3 | 37 | 62 | 381 | 1 | 1 | 173 | 2 | 3 |
| 2022 | Duke | ACC | 0 | 231 | 363 | 2,794 | 20 | 6 | 636 | 11 | 31 |
| 2023 | Duke | ACC | 7 | 95 | 165 | 1,102 | 3 | 3 | 352 | 4 | 7 |
| 2024 | Notre Dame | FBS Independents | 12 | 194 | 293 | 2,092 | 16 | 5 | 721 | 14 | 30 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
25%
ML model output
Context Prob
25%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.275
2,092 career receiving yards — strong volume+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.60 — strong athletic ceiling-0.554
Improvement accelerating (+6.3) — getting better faster each year-0.390
174.3 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.318