Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Rusty Smith
Rusty Smith

Player breakdown

Rusty Smith

Florida Atlantic · 2010 Draft Class

6th round, 176th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~39
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

10%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2010TEN21204020004000
2012TEN10353400000
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic51081941,28568006
2007Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic112564473,3532780027
2008Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic92144002,91822140022
2009Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic61452531,9151450014

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

10%

ML model output

Context Prob

10%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

9,471 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.268
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.260
Composite college score: 13 — elite multi-metric profile+0.168

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.552
Improvement accelerating (+1.6) — getting better faster each year-0.397
305.5 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.341

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)