Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ryan Lindley
Ryan Lindley

Player breakdown

Ryan Lindley

San Diego St. · 2012 Draft Class

6-4229 lbs6th round, 185th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

27%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2012ARI648917175207700
2014ARI32459356224002
2015IND106105810001
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2008San Diego StateMountain West92424272,6531690016
2009San Diego StateMountain West112394373,05423160023
2010San Diego StateMountain West112253983,55426140026
2011San Diego StateMountain West102093982,7402080020

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

27%

ML model output

Context Prob

27%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.401
Improvement accelerating (+0.3) — getting better faster each year+0.351
4.45s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269

Top Negative Factors

292.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.327
4 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)