Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ryan Mallett
Ryan Mallett

Player breakdown

Ryan Mallett

Arkansas · 2011 Draft Class

6-7253 lbs3rd round, 74th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~38
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

25%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2012NWE40141701-900
2014HOU32417540022-202
2015BAL22589756622402
2016BAL40362601-600
2017BAL209165620-302
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2007MichiganBig Ten46114189275007
2009ArkansasSEC122254033,6273070030
2010ArkansasSEC122423643,59230110030

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

25%

ML model output

Context Prob

25%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1350 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.331
7,219 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.258

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.566
Improvement accelerating (+3.1) — getting better faster each year-0.397
300.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)