Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Ryan Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill

Player breakdown

Ryan Tannehill

Texas A&M · 2012 Draft Class

6-4221 lbs1st round, 8th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~38
Medium25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

46%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2012MIA16162824843,2941213211214
2013MIA16163555883,9132417238125
2014MIA16163925904,0452712311128
2015MIA16163635864,2082412141125
2016MIA13132613892,9951912164120
2018MIA11111762741,979179145017
2019TEN12102012862,742226185426
2020TEN16163154813,819337266740
2021TEN17173575313,7342114270728
2022TEN12122123252,53613698215
2023TEN1081492301,616477415
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2008Texas A&MSEC411800000
2009Texas A&MSEC6486000000
2010Texas A&MSEC61301991,43411333112
2011Texas A&MSEC113004913,4152814296432

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

46%

ML model output

Context Prob

46%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.92 — elite athletic ceiling+0.366
Strong ascending production slope (+1135 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.337
4,917 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+425.9) — getting better faster each year-0.390
182.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.343
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.334

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)