Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Sam Bradford
Sam Bradford

Player breakdown

Sam Bradford

Oklahoma · 2010 Draft Class

6-4236 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~38
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1All-American x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 1726NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

92%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2010STL16163545903,512181563119
2011STL10101913572,164662606
2012STL16163285513,7022113124122
2013STL771592621,68714431014
2015PHI14143465323,725191439019
2016MIN15153955523,87720553020
2017MIN22324338230-303
2018ARI33508040024702
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2007OklahomaSEC112163082,8793478034
2008OklahomaSEC133024424,46448665553
2009OklahomaSEC2396956220002

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

71%

ML model output

Context Prob

71%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.93 — elite athletic ceiling+0.369
7,905 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.248

Top Negative Factors

304.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319
Height-adjusted speed: 4.54s — below average speed for frame-0.307

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)