Player breakdown
Sam Darnold
USC · 2018 Draft Class
6-3221 lbs1st round, 3rd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~29
High25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
65%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | NYJ | 13 | 13 | 239 | 414 | 2,865 | 17 | 15 | 138 | 1 | 18 |
| 2019 | NYJ | 13 | 13 | 273 | 441 | 3,024 | 19 | 13 | 62 | 2 | 21 |
| 2020 | NYJ | 12 | 12 | 217 | 364 | 2,208 | 9 | 11 | 217 | 2 | 11 |
| 2021 | CAR | 12 | 11 | 243 | 406 | 2,527 | 9 | 13 | 222 | 5 | 14 |
| 2022 | CAR | 6 | 6 | 82 | 140 | 1,143 | 7 | 3 | 106 | 2 | 9 |
| 2023 | SFO | 10 | 1 | 28 | 46 | 297 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 3 |
| 2024 | MIN | 17 | 17 | 361 | 545 | 4,319 | 35 | 12 | 212 | 1 | 36 |
| 2025 | SEA | 17 | 17 | 323 | 477 | 4,048 | 25 | 14 | 95 | 0 | 25 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | USC | Big Ten | 10 | 213 | 313 | 2,633 | 26 | 8 | 230 | 2 | 28 |
| 2017 | USC | Big Ten | 13 | 277 | 435 | 3,787 | 26 | 12 | 100 | 5 | 31 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
65%
ML model output
Context Prob
65%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Strong ascending production slope (+1154 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.331
Improvement accelerating (+0.4) — getting better faster each year+0.312
4.40s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.552
279.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.345
Height-adjusted speed: 4.66s — below average speed for frame-0.289