Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Sam Ehlinger
Sam Ehlinger

Player breakdown

Sam Ehlinger

Texas · 2021 Draft Class

6-1220 lbs6th round, 218th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

16%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2021IND3000000900
2022IND4364101573338703
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017TexasSEC81472601,803107368212
2018TexasSEC122563983,1232554181338
2019TexasSEC112844363,462299590635
2020TexasSEC91943222,566265377834

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

16%

ML model output

Context Prob

16%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.44s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269
10,954 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Improvement accelerating (+0.9) — getting better faster each year+0.213

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.86 — elite athletic ceiling-0.566
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.353
273.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)