Player breakdown
Sam Howell
North Carolina · 2022 Draft Class
6-1218 lbs5th round, 144th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~25
Medium25+ Total TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
47%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | WAS | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 169 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 1 | 2 |
| 2023 | WAS | 17 | 17 | 388 | 612 | 3,946 | 21 | 21 | 263 | 5 | 26 |
| 2024 | SEA | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | North Carolina | ACC | 12 | 234 | 388 | 3,347 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 35 |
| 2020 | North Carolina | ACC | 11 | 237 | 348 | 3,586 | 30 | 7 | 146 | 5 | 35 |
| 2021 | North Carolina | ACC | 11 | 205 | 327 | 2,851 | 23 | 9 | 825 | 11 | 34 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
47%
ML model output
Context Prob
47%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Improvement accelerating (+0.1) — getting better faster each year+0.351
9,784 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.261
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.59 — average athletic ceiling-0.566
287.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319