Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Sean Mannion
Sean Mannion

Player breakdown

Sean Mannion

Oregon St. · 2015 Draft Class

6-6229 lbs3rd round, 89th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~34
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

20%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2015STL10673100000
2016LAR10361901-100
2017LAR51223718500-200
2018LAR30232300-900
2019MIN31122112602-500
2021MIN112236189101401
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011Oregon StatePac-12103054733,32816180016
2012Oregon StatePac-1282003092,44615130015
2013Oregon StatePac-12123765704,40336140036
2014Oregon StatePac-1292824533,1641580015

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

20%

ML model output

Context Prob

20%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.3) — getting better faster each year+0.339
4.39s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269
13,341 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.85 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
342.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.341
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.327

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)