Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Sean Renfree
Sean Renfree

Player breakdown

Sean Renfree

Duke · 2013 Draft Class

6-3219 lbs7th round, 249th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~36
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

15%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2015ATL20371101-400
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2009DukeACC3345033042004
2010DukeACC92854643,13114170014
2011DukeACC82824342,89113110013
2012DukeACC82974413,11319100019

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

15%

ML model output

Context Prob

15%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.89 — elite athletic ceiling+0.272
9,465 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.188

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+8.5) — getting better faster each year-0.390
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.347
338.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.327

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)