Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Skylar Thompson
Skylar Thompson

Player breakdown

Skylar Thompson

Kansas St. · 2022 Draft Class

6-2217 lbs7th round, 247th overallAge at Draft: 25Age: ~29
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

2%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2022MIA7260105534132101
2024MIA31213318700400
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2017Kansas StateBig 12348766625226338
2018Kansas StateBig 1281222081,39194373514
2019Kansas StateBig 12101672832,1911254021022
2020Kansas StateBig 1234064626403837
2021Kansas StateBig 1271412051,85494009

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

2%

ML model output

Context Prob

2%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.28s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.269
6,724 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
1.26 TDs/game — dominant red-zone role in college+0.141

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.84 — elite athletic ceiling-0.546
Improvement accelerating (+2.3) — getting better faster each year-0.390
5 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)