Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Stefan Lefors
Stefan Lefors

Player breakdown

Stefan Lefors

Louisville · 2005 Draft Class

6-0208 lbs4th round, 121st overallAge: ~41
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

42%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2003LouisvilleACC5871291,244101173111
2004LouisvilleACC101712312,403182257220

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

42%

ML model output

Context Prob

42%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.90 — elite athletic ceiling+0.335
Strong ascending production slope (+1159 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.331
4.09s short shuttle — elite lateral quickness+0.277

Top Negative Factors

243.1 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.322
Height-adjusted speed: 4.56s — below average speed for frame-0.295
Best-season yards rank: top 75% in class — average-0.286

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)