Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Thomas Castellanos
Thomas Castellanos

Player breakdown

Thomas Castellanos

Florida State · 2026 Draft Class

5-11190 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~19
High
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $2.5M
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

58%

SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2025Florida StateACC121712852,67697622514

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

58%

ML model output

Context Prob

58%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Strong ascending production slope (+1338 yards/yr) — still improving at draft time+0.343
2,676 career receiving yards — strong volume+0.273
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.267

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.55 — average athletic ceiling-0.568
Improvement accelerating (+2676.0) — getting better faster each year-0.390
223.0 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.335

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)