Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Tim Tebow
Tim Tebow

Player breakdown

Tim Tebow

Florida · 2010 Draft Class

6-3236 lbs1st round, 25th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~39
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1Manning x1All-American x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 4Heisman votes: 1957NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

92%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2010DEN93418265453227611
2011DEN14111262711,729126660618
2012NYJ12268390010200
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2006FloridaSEC6213235741430711
2007FloridaSEC122173173,1322968382251
2008FloridaSEC131742682,5152825641240
2009FloridaSEC132133142,8952159101435

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

14%

ML model output

Context Prob

14%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Physical upside: 0.95 — elite athletic ceiling+0.355
4.17s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
8,899 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260

Top Negative Factors

Improvement accelerating (+7.8) — getting better faster each year-0.397
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.367
202.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.343

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)