Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Tom Brandstater
Tom Brandstater

Player breakdown

Tom Brandstater

Fresno St. · 2009 Draft Class

6-5220 lbs6th round, 174th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~41
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

3%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011STL1002000000
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2005Fresno StateMountain West16134911001
2006Fresno StateMountain West101462681,490131486114
2007Fresno StateMountain West91883072,36914578216
2008Fresno StateMountain West82083482,47817110017

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

3%

ML model output

Context Prob

3%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.37s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
6,386 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Composite college score: 11 — above avg multi-metric profile+0.168

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.546
Improvement accelerating (+49.6) — getting better faster each year-0.390
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.342

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)