Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Tom Savage
Tom Savage

Player breakdown

Tom Savage

Pittsburgh · 2014 Draft Class

6-4228 lbs4th round, 135th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~36
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

25%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2014HOU20101912701-600
2016HOU324673461001200
2017HOU871252231,41256205
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2009RutgersBig Ten91492852,2111470014
2010RutgersBig Ten2438352123002
2013PittsburghACC122303762,8342190021

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

25%

ML model output

Context Prob

25%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Improvement accelerating (+0.3) — getting better faster each year+0.344
4.36s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.277
2,834 career receiving yards — strong volume+0.273

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.560
236.2 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.330
Height-adjusted speed: 4.71s — below average speed for frame-0.309

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)