Player breakdown
Tommy Mellott
Montana St. · 2025 Draft Class
6th round, 213th overallAge: ~22
HighMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
61%
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Montana State | Big Sky | 0 | 117 | 192 | 1,507 | 10 | 4 | 1,058 | 12 | 22 |
| 2023 | Montana State | Big Sky | 9 | 75 | 119 | 1,068 | 10 | 2 | 690 | 5 | 15 |
| 2024 | Montana State | Big Sky | 14 | 183 | 260 | 2,454 | 28 | 2 | 790 | 12 | 40 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
61%
ML model output
Context Prob
61%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
5,029 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.281
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.264
2 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.546
218.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.341
Best-season yards rank: top 86% in class — average-0.279