Player breakdown
Tommy Stevens
Mississippi St. · 2020 Draft Class
7th round, 240th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~29
MediumMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
42%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Penn State | Big Ten | 2 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 2 | 2 |
| 2017 | Penn State | Big Ten | 5 | 14 | 27 | 158 | 3 | 0 | 190 | 4 | 7 |
| 2018 | Penn State | Big Ten | 3 | 8 | 11 | 110 | 1 | 1 | 118 | 2 | 3 |
| 2019 | Mississippi State | SEC | 5 | 80 | 135 | 934 | 9 | 5 | 310 | 3 | 12 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
42%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
934 career receiving yards — modest volume+0.281
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.273
1 season(s) at 80+ ypg — one elite output+0.262
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.554
Improvement accelerating (+24.9) — getting better faster each year-0.397
186.8 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.329