Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Trace McSorley
Trace McSorley

Player breakdown

Trace McSorley

Penn St. · 2019 Draft Class

6-0202 lbs6th round, 197th overallAge at Draft: 24Age: ~31
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

10%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2019BAL1000000100
2020BAL2031090101701
2022ARI614583412056100
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2015Penn StateBig Ten061343001200
2016Penn StateBig Ten132063583,360255352631
2017Penn StateBig Ten122523863,2282684311137
2018Penn StateBig Ten111753282,2841667231127

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

10%

ML model output

Context Prob

10%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

4.12s short shuttle — average lateral quickness+0.262
8,915 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.260
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.249

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.87 — elite athletic ceiling-0.493
Improvement accelerating (+77.1) — getting better faster each year-0.397
4 college seasons of data — proven multi-year track record-0.353

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)