Player breakdown
Trevor Lawrence
Clemson · 2021 Draft Class
6-5213 lbs1st round, 1st overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~26
HighAll-Conference x125+ Total TD
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
58%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | JAX | 17 | 17 | 359 | 602 | 3,641 | 12 | 17 | 334 | 2 | 14 |
| 2022 | JAX | 17 | 17 | 387 | 584 | 4,113 | 25 | 8 | 291 | 5 | 30 |
| 2023 | JAX | 16 | 16 | 370 | 564 | 4,016 | 21 | 14 | 339 | 4 | 25 |
| 2024 | JAX | 10 | 10 | 172 | 284 | 2,045 | 11 | 7 | 119 | 3 | 14 |
| 2025 | JAX | 17 | 17 | 341 | 560 | 4,007 | 29 | 12 | 359 | 9 | 38 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Clemson | ACC | 12 | 212 | 326 | 2,606 | 24 | 4 | 144 | 1 | 25 |
| 2019 | Clemson | ACC | 13 | 232 | 337 | 3,172 | 34 | 8 | 407 | 7 | 41 |
| 2020 | Clemson | ACC | 9 | 231 | 334 | 3,153 | 24 | 5 | 203 | 8 | 32 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
39%
ML model output
Context Prob
39%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Improvement accelerating (+0.2) — getting better faster each year+0.351
8,931 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.261
Top Negative Factors
Physical upside: 0.60 — strong athletic ceiling-0.557
262.7 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.351
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319