Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Trevor Siemian
Trevor Siemian

Player breakdown

Trevor Siemian

Northwestern · 2015 Draft Class

7th round, 250th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~34
LowMissed 25+ TD
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

6%

YearTeamGGSCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2015DEN1000000-100
2016DEN14142894863,401181057018
2017DEN11102063492,2851214127113
2019NYJ1136300000
2021NOR641081881,15411320112
2022CHI21152618411801
2023NYJ5386153724244002
SeasonTeamConfGCmpAttPass YdsPass TDINTRush YdsRush TDTotal TD
2011NorthwesternBig Ten31626256311903
2012NorthwesternBig Ten41282181,312634817
2013NorthwesternBig Ten51782982,14911933011
2014NorthwesternBig Ten82283922,214711007

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

6%

ML model output

Context Prob

6%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.484

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

5,931 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.268
No height-adjusted speed data — missing combine measurement+0.260
0 lbs — slot/speed weight class+0.152

Top Negative Factors

Physical upside: 0.00 — average athletic ceiling-0.546
Improvement accelerating (+7.7) — getting better faster each year-0.390
296.6 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.325

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)