Player breakdown
Troy Smith
Ohio St. · 2007 Draft Class
6-0225 lbs5th round, 174th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~42
EliteHeisman x1Davey O'Brien x1All-American x1Missed 25+ TD
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 2540NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
92%
| Year | Team | G | GS | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | BAL | 4 | 2 | 40 | 76 | 452 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 3 |
| 2008 | BAL | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 82 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 1 |
| 2009 | BAL | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 1 |
| 2010 | SFO | 6 | 6 | 73 | 145 | 1,176 | 5 | 4 | 121 | 1 | 6 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Cmp | Att | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Total TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 2004 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 6 | 68 | 122 | 896 | 8 | 3 | 339 | 2 | 10 |
| 2005 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 10 | 130 | 209 | 1,940 | 14 | 4 | 545 | 11 | 25 |
| 2006 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 11 | 199 | 297 | 2,507 | 30 | 5 | 233 | 1 | 31 |
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
20%
ML model output
Context Prob
20%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
0
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.484
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical upside: 0.90 — elite athletic ceiling+0.355
5,343 career receiving yards — elite multi-year volume+0.273
Composite college score: 30 — elite multi-metric profile+0.192
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+1.8) — getting better faster each year-0.397
197.9 career ypg — elite WR1 college production-0.334
3 season(s) at 80+ ypg — sustained elite output-0.319